Guess Games

    Guess Games

    Glicko Rating System

    Understanding our skill-based rating system

    Guess Games uses the Glicko-2 rating system to provide accurate and fair skill ratings for all players. This advanced rating system, developed by Mark Glickman, is widely recognized as one of the most accurate methods for measuring player skill in competitive games.

    What is the Glicko Rating System?

    The Glicko rating system is an improvement over the traditional Elo rating system, designed to address its limitations. Unlike Elo, which assumes all players have equal uncertainty in their ratings, Glicko introduces a Rating Deviation (RD) that measures the confidence in a player's rating.

    • More accurate skill assessment than traditional Elo ratings
    • Accounts for rating uncertainty through Rating Deviation
    • Adapts quickly to changes in player performance
    • Handles inactive players by increasing uncertainty over time
    • Provides fair matchmaking based on skill level
    How It Works

    Initial Rating

    New players start with a rating of 1500 and a Rating Deviation (RD) of 350. The RD represents uncertainty about the player's true skill level.

    Rating Updates

    After each game, your rating is updated based on your performance, your opponent's rating, and both players' RD values. Beating a higher-rated opponent increases your rating more than beating a lower-rated opponent.

    Rating Deviation

    As you play more games, your RD decreases, indicating increased confidence in your rating. If you don't play for a while, your RD increases to reflect uncertainty about your current skill level.

    Volatility

    The system also tracks volatility, which measures how much your rating tends to fluctuate. Players with consistent performance have lower volatility, while players with variable results have higher volatility.

    Rating Components

    Rating (μ)

    Your skill level, starting at 1500. Higher ratings indicate better skill. Ratings typically range from 1000 to 2000+.

    Rating Deviation (RD)

    Uncertainty in your rating, starting at 350. Lower RD means more confidence in your rating. RD ranges from 30 (very confident) to 350 (very uncertain).

    Volatility (σ)

    How much your rating fluctuates. Lower volatility means more consistent performance. This helps the system adapt to your playing style.

    Benefits of Glicko Ratings
    • More accurate skill representation than simple win/loss records
    • Fair matchmaking by considering skill uncertainty
    • Quick adaptation to improving or declining players
    • Handles new players appropriately without penalizing experienced players
    • Provides meaningful comparisons between players of different activity levels
    References and Further Reading

    Guess Games implements the Glicko-2 rating system with default values: initial rating of 1500, initial RD of 350, and initial volatility of 0.06. Ratings are calculated separately for each game, and players also have a global rating that averages their ratings across all games. The system uses a tau (Ï„) value of 0.5 to control volatility changes.